Best Pitches of the Year So Far

After the 2007 season John Walsh looked at the best pitches of each type for 2007. For example, that year Heath Bell had the best fastball. For every 100 fastballs he threw the opposing team scored 2.7 runs less than expected. For this quick post I wanted to check in on pitchers so far this year and see who had the best of each pitch type. Like John I am going to measure a pitch by its run value (in the link John has a great description of the run value of pitch). +-+ Four-Seam Fastball Number Run Value per 100 +-- David Aardsma 101 -4.6 Jonathan Broxton 89 -4.3 Brian Stokes 75 -4.2 Frank Francisco 76 -4.1 Dan Haren 201 -4.1 It is incredible that over twice as many pitches and as a starter Dan Haren's four-seam fastball is right up there with those of four hard throwing relievers. Heath Bell's fastball is still very good checking in at 9th on this list. + Two-Seam/Sinker Number Run Value per 100 Derek Lowe 44 -7.8 Josh Beckett 32 -7.8 Jamie Shields 37 -6.3 Rick Porcello 64 -6.3 Ramon Ramirez 32 -5.3 It is my understanding that the new pitchf/x pitch classification system calls two-seam fastballs sinkers for some pitchers, so I grouped both of them here. Tiger's fans must be thrilled to see Porcello's name on any list that includes Lowe, Beckett and Shields. +----------+ Changeups Number Run Value per 100 Dallas Braden 79 -6.5 Shairon Martis 45 -6.1 Anthony Reyes 100 -5.2 Jered Weaver 44 -4.8 Johan Santana 74 -4.4 +-+ Shairon who? Luckily Harry Pavlidis broke down his stuff for us about a month ago. Curves Number Run Value per 100 Javier Vazquez 62 -6.5 Wandy Rodriguez 133 -5.1 Jeff Niemann 44 -4.9 Jose Veras 42 -4.6 Paul Maholm 48 -3.9 +--------+ Wandy had the top curveball in 2007. Erik Bedard just missed the top 5 with -3.6 runs per 100 on his 127 curves, so on a total run value basis he is second only to Rodriguez. Sliders Number Run Value per 100 ++ John Danks 55 -6.0 Kyle Davis 32 -5.1 Santiago Casilla 34 -4.8 Yovani Gallardo 29 -4.8 Mark Lowe 30 -4.6 +-------+ This is an interesting list with mostly younger pitchers. One HUGE caveat here is that I did not adjust for the strength of the batters faced. So if a pitcher has only faced poor batters his numbers could be artificially inflated. Also if a pitcher tends to throw a particular pitch only against very good or very bad batters that could throw things off. When I make these lists again at the all-star break or at the end of the year I will properly adjust for the batters faced.